Highlights:
Onset Dates:
o Eastern regions (URR & CRR): 12–19 June 2025
o Western regions (LRR, NBR & WCR): 20–25 June 2025
o These are expected to be 1 week later than average in many areas.
Cessation Dates:
o Across the country: 20–26 October 2025
Length of Season:
o Expected to last 122–125 days in most areas
Dry Spells:
o Short to medium at the start (first 50 days)
o Normal to long toward the end (last 70 days)
Highlights:
The 2025 seasonal forecast, while predicting generally favourable characteristics, may also have negative implications alongside or instead of the more expected positive ones. Indeed, in areas where above-average rainfall totals, Late to normal onset dates, above-average to average runoffs and Short to medium dry spells are expected, it is not excluded to observe inconvenient situations that can, for example, be linked to excess humidity, rapid filling of low-pressure areas and overflowing of rivers, the rise of groundwater, the poor preparation of the agricultural season and transhumance movements, the impassability of roads, the difficulties of travel and access to areas of vital, economic and health interests.
Summary:
The Department of Water Resources (DWR) issues the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) annually in fulfilment of its mandate to provide timely climate and weather advice to the Government and people of The Gambia. This prediction focuses on rainfall patterns during the critical July–August–September (JAS) period, offering guidance for planning and decision-making across both public and private sectors. The forecast is particularly important for climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, aviation, construction, water resources, disaster risk reduction, health, energy, trade, and tourism, amongst others. DWR uses advanced forecasting tools and current scientific knowledge, drawing on sea surface temperature (SST) analyses, global climate model outputs, and regional expertise to issue the JAS outlook. Based on the 1991–2020 climatological reference period, the following consensus forecast is presented.
